Human behavior is unpredictable. However, it is possible to reliably predict human behavior based upon the law of large numbers and the bell shaped curve. By eliminating the extremes of human behavior represented by the wings of a bell shaped curve, the resulting Chinese gong represents the vast middle ground of human behavior where it can be safely said that a specified behavior always or never occurs.
The Bell Shaped Curve
In probability theory a bell shaped curve is a frequency distribution that resembles the outline of a bell when plotted on a graph. Such distributions are often useful to anticipate otherwise random human behavior. The horizontal axis describes a human behavior while the vertical axis describes the frequency of that behavior.
The Chinese Gong
A Chinese gong is the center section of a bell shaped curve. It lops off infrequent and aberrant behaviors by eliminating the wings of the bell shaped curve and looks like this – . Because the Chinese gong eliminates exceptions to general rules of behavior, it permits one to opine that insurers “always” do X, or dependent counsel “never” does Y, or the like within the “Chinese gong”.
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